The first full week of Meteorological Spring is looking like the part with slightly-above-normal temperatures and a few storm systems which could bring beneficial rainfall to the region - the strongest of which looks to moves through Thursday into Friday.
Rainfall forecast late Monday into Tuesday.
The first storm system will favor areas along and east of I-35 in the Midwest with totals generally under under a half an inch of rainfall. While not a lot, anything is beneficial this time of year heading into the spring plant as widespread drought continues.
Monday’s severe weather risk.
The Storm Prediction Center has added a Level 1 of 5 risk of severe weather, a Marginal risk, to the Central Mississippi River Valley region. The main concern would be large hail and a strong wind gusts with the strongest storms. There is a small chance for a tornado, especially northern Illinois, but as of now the risk is quite low.
Thursday/Friday rainfall forecast.
A second, likely stronger storm system, is forecast to move into the Midwest towards the end of the work week. Late Thursday into Friday, widespread totals could approach 1”+, especially along and south of I-80 across Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Kansas and Missouri.
Looking at the combined forecast for rainfall this week is looking pretty good for the region! A large portion of Iowa could pick up over 1” of rainfall, especially south of Highway 20.
February precipitation rankings show much-below-normal precipitation in February. Southwest Iowa was the driest February on record.
The precipitation is needed, especially in areas that are forecast to see the heaviest rainfall. Southern Iowa and northern Missouri into western Illinois saw a top-five-driest February on record based on preliminary data. Southwest Iowa in fact was dead last in 132 years of record.
January precipitation rankings show the region started 2024 on a good note precipitation wise.
The Midwest lost a lot of ground after what was a pretty good January in the region. Much of the Central US was in the top 15 Januarys on record, especially drought-stricken eastern Iowa
There remains timing and location differences in the models to stay tuned to the latest forecast.
-Meteorologist Nick Stewart
