This upcoming week will feature rather quiet weather for much of the central US, however trends have been indicating the potential for winter to make a return as we head into the upcoming weekend to round out the month of March.

The work week will start off on a cool note with many locations in the 30s for highs Monday. Afternoon temperatures across Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri and Illinois could push 8-10° below normal for this time of year. however some warmer air is lurking to the northwest.

Temperature anomalies on Tuesday March 19.

By Tuesday we see a big swing with highs 5-10° above normal for much of the region. This will be fueled by a rather gusty winds on Tuesday pushing highs into the 50s and even 60s, especially farther south.

Wing gusts Tuesday afternoon and evening will push into the 25-35mph range across much of the region. This again will help funnel warmer air, and also start the moisture advection process to the central US which will be very important as we start watching for the potential return to winter.

THURSDAY CLIPPER

Thursday the pattern begins to break down setting the stage for a turbulent weekend. Temperatures once again begin to tumble with below-normal air returning from the north and northeast, and with that, a clipper system which could bring snow to the region.

Precipitation potential Thursday and Thursday night.

Models are generally in good agreement with a rain/snow, to all snow, system moving from the northwest to the southeast Thursday and Thursday night. There is not a tremendous amount of moisture for this system to work with so total accumulation will be in the 0.1” to .03” range. If all snow, this could be a quick 2-4” of snow.

European ensemble forecast for snow potential Thursday into early Friday.

Model guidance is pointing to this solution with a show of 1-3” of snow from the Dakotas through southern Wisconsin. One thing to remember is the warm air in place ahead of this system. That should be enough to warm the ground, so not all of this will stick.

With that said, assuming this trend holds, early Friday morning could feature click roads in areas of the Upper Midwest.

The overall upper-air pattern late this week.

The overall pattern late this week will transition to northwest flow aloft which will bring active weather.

A clipper Thursday, Storm #1, will be followed by another disturbance in the Pacific which will be Storm #2. What will make Storm #2 stronger is the potential two pieces of energy will combine, or phase, into a singular, stronger storm.

At this range that remains uncertain, but all model guidance indicates this is the most likely scenario.

WEEKEND STORM

Precipitation forecast Saturday night Sunday into Monday.

A second, stronger storm system is waiting in the wings during the upcoming weekend, and this should have more moisture to work with. Models put out a large area of 0.25” to 0.5” of total precipitation with snow on the northern side, and all rain on the southern side.

The southern side could also feature a severe weather threat given the time of year. Overall this will likely be a fairly dynamic system.

Where the track ends up remains a major question at the moment, and this of course determines who sees that rain vs. snow.

Potential storm system locations Sunday next week.

Looking at the output of the European Ensemble forecast we can see the many, many possibilities for this system. With a week to go, the model has lows as far north as Fargo, North Dakota and as far south as Columbia, Missouri.

This is a huge range of possible outcomes, and one reason why its just not only useless to look at snowfall output this far out, it’s just disingenuous to trust anyone putting out snow maps a week out.

With all that said, we are in the “watching” phase of our forecasts. The probability of a storm at this point is medium to high, but the chance of accumulating snow is very low, especially on a city-to-city level. If you have travel plans next weekend make sure to keep an eye on the evolving forecast.

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart