Temperatures across the Midwest are well above normal this weekend, and that “mild” trend will continue through much of February with one small hiccup.

In the short term the month will be filled with temperatures running about 10°+ above normal around the Great Lakes. The Climate Prediction Center has a high-confidence forecast of that centered on February 9-13.

Looking at long-term forecasts from a few select cities in the region the temperatures will be well into the 40s if not warmer. Very unusual for early February!

These mild temperatures will continue with a bit of a dip approaching next weekend with near-normal, if not slightly below-normal temperatures.

Analogs show a bit of a cool down centered on February 9-12, but this cool down does not last long.

Guidance suggests higher confidence of above-normal temperatures returning again through Feb. 12-18 at least across much of the central United States. This pattern also would suggest an active southwest flow which could be a wetter pattern as well.

Wetter than normal conditions across the Central Mississippi River Valley is likely which will likely be more in the form of showers and storm compared to snow given the warmer temperatures in place.