As first mentioned nearly two weeks ago, the pattern continues to look cooler headed into February across much of the United States. Latest model guidance using historical events suggests a high-probability of below-normal temperatures across the Midwest and Great Lakes Region.

Based on the long-range American GEFS model and comparing it to the top 105 historical events that most-closely match early February, there is rather good agreement sub-zero low temperatures will be possible across a vast portion of the northern tier of the US. This forecast is centered on January 30 to February 2.

While confidence is low at this range, more than a week out, models suggest morning temperatures on January 31 potentially extremely cold. The 10-percent-probability temperatures are as low as -30 across the Dakotas with average temperatures off the ensemble forecast in the -5 to -15 range.

Bitter!

So how long does this cold blast last? Long-range patterns suggest some warming once again in the middle part of February.

The rollercoaster continues.