Following a prolonged stretch of above-normal temperatures in January across not only the Midwest, but the entire United States, changes will be brewing in the form of snow potential late next week.

First things first - even warmer temperatures with showers and storms in the Midwest will start the week.

An area of low pressure will push across the central Mississippi River Valley late Sunday through Monday bringing widespread rain and a risk for a few strong thunderstorms. Minor snow accumulation is also possible across far northwest Iowa into Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.

Forecast precipitation of 0.25” to 0.50” will be likely for a very large portion of the Midwest with the heaviest rain in far southern Missouri, Illinois and Indiana. This will coincide with a better chance of thunderstorms that may be on the stronger side of things.

Trends are favoring some potential for strong storms Monday. The above image shows the general risk area based on historical events with a similar setup. A risk for damaging wind gusts, and potentially a tornado or two, exists especially in southern Missouri, Illinois and Indiana.

Check for the latest forecasts from the Storm Prediction Center as the event nears. Given the time of year confidence will be lower this far out as this is not the main severe season in the Ohio Valley.

Forecast snowfall across the northern Midwest will be on the lighter side with limited moisture up that way and temperatures near freezing. Minor road impacts are possible.

Monday’s forecast highs will be 20-30°+ above normal across a huge portion of the region with highs pushing well into the 50s and 60s from about I-80 and points south.

Late in the week, however, temperatures will dive as yet another storm system approaches the region and will pull in colder air - therefore a snow risk is increasingly likely.

Confidence is on the rise there may be an impactful accumulating snow event, especially for Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, northern Missouri, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Trends have been favoring a “snowier” and “colder” solution Wednesday into Thursday. There will likely be travel impacts with this setup.

Ensemble models are in somewhat good agreement with the general theme of an axis of accumulating snow in this area. Do not focus on the numbers on the above models, just the general area at this range. With about five days before flakes fall it’s too early to determine snow amounts.

We will keep you updated on the forecast as things progress.